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The decision to accept Covid vaccinations is complicated for a number of reasons. First, there are a tremendous number of variables to consider. Second is the bias of opinions you rely on to advise you. The third is the quality of information needed to form an opinion. Any one of those could be the subject of a decent article, but for the moment I want to focus on breaking down the risk/reward proposition of Covid statistics and the vaccination in simple terms

This article will rely on data from CDC and the openVAERS report. Given the chronic underreporting of adverse reactions, we will also gross up the number of vaccine adverse events reports (“VAERS”) by the estimated underreport factor the Department of Health and Human Services believes is the current situation. This means all Covid statistics in this article are from the federal government.

First, it turns out Covid 19 isn’t very fatal. In the early going it had been reported as high as 10%. We have come to find out though that unless you are an at-risk person with multiple health issues, or geriatric, the actual death rate is something in the neighborhood of .002% (Depending on your age and level of fitness, *your* number could be lower still). Let’s put that into simple terms using M&M’s. That means if you had a bowl that contained 1,000 M&M’s, each representing a Covid infection, only 2 of them would be fatal. You can increase your odds of not getting a fatal one by exercise, fitness, and supplementation, but that’s another story altogether. Suffice it to say, the odds are quite high that you will survive your M&M, and if you do, you never have to have an M&M again because you are now immune to them. In short, 2 out of 1,000 M&M’s will kill you if you do nothing.

A lot of people are telling you to get a vaccine because it helps survive an infection. I’m not sure it looks like it, so let’s do the experiment again. HHS suggests VAERS data is underreported by a whopping 769%. This is a historical number not limited to Covid. What is VAERS and what does this mean? VAERS is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and is managed by the CDC and FDA.

The VAERS report suggests a total of 1,697,579 adverse events to the Covid vax. If you believe HHS (which I do), this number is actually closer to 13,054,328! This means that out of the 213 million people that are “fully vaccinated” there has been an adverse reaction 6% of the time. And this is not counting miscarriages which have a 20% occurrence with 181,599 of them being fatalities. Among the “serious” VAERS reactions are myocarditis, pericarditis, strokes, circulatory issues, heart attacks, compromised immune systems, and death.

Let’s go back to our M&M’s again. If you elect to get vaccinated, there are 60 “bad” M&M in the bowl, with 3 of them being fatal. Here’s the thing though. To be considered fully vaccinated, you will have had to reach into that bowl 4 times, which means your chance of a material adverse reaction is no longer 6% but 22%. And people lined up to eat them. Repeatedly.

To recap: You need to select one M&M (make a decision about getting the Covid shot)

  1. Bowl #1: 2 of the M&M’s will kill you (do nothing; no shots or boosters)
  2. Bowl #2: 3 of the M&Ms will kill you plus 220 of the M&M’s will give you a potentially life-threatening disease (get “fully vaccinated”)

Which bowl would you take your M&M from?

The real heartbreak here is that I cannot blame someone for believing in institutions. We all wanted to have a safe path out of this, and there was a fairly unified messaging effort in favor of vaccination. It isn’t until you begin to sift through data on your own that the advisability becomes questionable. Now ask yourself, why is the federal government pushing you so hard to reach into bowl #2?

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Joe Republic

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